Luxury home price growth to decelerate worldwide in 2019

Stormy skies over the Victoria Harbour skyline in Hong Kong SAR. Efired/Shutterstock

Prime prices worldwide are succumbing to the downward pressures of property market regulations, rising finance costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and a high volume of new prime supply, according to Knight Frank’s Global Outlook 2019 report.

The consultancy’s Prime Global Cities Index, which tracks prime prices across 43 cities worldwide, is posting its slowest positive growth rate since 2012.

Of 15 key cities tracked by the index, the cities of Hong Kong and Mumbai will lead the slowdown with prime home prices forecast to drop by 10 percent and 5 percent, respectively, in the year to December 2019. Dubai is also expected to see prime home prices drop by 2.4 percent.

Conversely, Madrid, Berlin and Paris is leading pricing forecasts, with a growth of 6 percent posited over the period. Prices in Singapore and New York City are meanwhile expected to hold steady from last year’s prices.

“Luxury house prices are now a distinct asset class, a safe asset viewed by the wealthy as a viable alternative to government bonds. However, luxury housing has become more homogenised over the last decade which has led to greater synchronicity when it comes to market cycles,” Knight Frank analysts wrote.

“Local policy interventions and economic shifts have the capacity to disrupt these ties but broader macro themes from the rising cost of finance to wealth creation, not to mention the desire to have a foothold in some of the world’s most transparent and prestigious neighbourhoods, will keep them in check.”

As recipients of new macro-prudential measures in 2018, markets like Hong Kong, Singapore, Vancouver and New Zealand are expected to slip down the rankings, the consultancy added.