Investors shift focus to suburban and regional markets as Australian urban housing prices surge

Investors are gravitating to suburban areas and overlooked towns as Australia’s alpha cities see skyrocketing demand and prices

In October last year, residents in the New South Wales suburb of Copacabana welcomed a new neighbour—not just any neighbour, but the prime minister of Australia.

Anthony Albanese moved into a striking three-bedroom mansion overlooking the Central Coast to start a new chapter with his fiancée, Jodie Haydon. While few begrudged the Labour leader a chance at love, many raised eyebrows at his decision to purchase a luxury property for AUD4.3 million (USD2.75 million) at a time when Australia’s housing market faced one of its worst crises in years. Critics labelled his move “tone-deaf” and “gobsmacking.”

They had a point.

Albanese secured his dream home while many Australians struggled with high property prices and soaring mortgage rates. In Sydney and Melbourne, the situation was especially dire. Many young Australians have been locked out of the housing market entirely, forced instead into long-term renting situations that offer scant security and rising costs.

“Confidence was very low last year,” Peter Li, a principal at Plus Agency realtors, says.

“The third and last quarters of last year were the lowest in terms of production and price points for real estate in years.”

The impact has been felt across demographics. First-time buyers have had to delay their homeownership dreams indefinitely, while existing homeowners, particularly those on variable mortgage rates, have been struggling to keep up with repayments. The Australian property market, once one of the world’s most accessible for buyers, has become increasingly impenetrable for many.

Australia’s housing market has been grappling with limited supply, high interest rates, and multi-decade-low unemployment since the pandemic, creating a perfect storm of skyrocketing demand and unaffordable prices. In November, investment firm AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver revealed that house prices nationwide were 34 percent above fair value.

This persistent unaffordability—expected to worsen in major cities like Sydney due to an anticipated immigration boom of one million people over the next 15 years—has triggered an exodus to previously overlooked towns and suburban areas, igniting a real estate boom beyond city centres.

“Queensland, especially around Brisbane, has experienced very strong growth in the last two to three years. The boom started just towards the end of the Covid period because everybody wanted a beachy, sunny lifestyle,” says Li. “Especially when you can work from home.”

According to PropTrack, a property valuation firm, Townsville in Queensland has seen house prices soar by over 80 percent in some areas over the past three years. Townsville’s median house price is now 41.4 percent higher than in January 2022, reaching AUD526,000. Other regional areas such as the Sunshine Coast and Byron Bay have also experienced sharp property price increases as city dwellers have sought more space, a slower pace of life, and, crucially, more affordability.

First-time buyers have had to delay their homeownership dreams indefinitely, while existing homeowners, particularly those on variable mortgage rates, have been struggling to keep up with repayments

Asian buyers have played a significant role in fuelling this boom, complemented by government incentives aimed at easing congestion in central business districts.

In Sydney, the government has invested heavily in metro lines, roads, and tunnels to enhance suburban connectivity. For AUD2 million, buyers must choose between a compact two-bedroom apartment in the central business district or a spacious five-bedroom house in the suburbs. Once-daunting two-hour commutes have been slashed to just 45 minutes via public transport.

Additionally, growing Asian communities and reputable schools have drawn buyers from Taiwan and Hong Kong to suburban areas such as Chatswood and Burwood.

Since the beginning of the year, suburbs have remained among the most attractive locations for property buyers.

Ivan Lam, executive director of international business at Charter Keck Cramer, a property advisory firm, notes that suburban buyers have more housing options, including townhouses, unlike city centres that predominantly feature apartments. Wealthier buyers and downsizers are also opting for pricier suburban properties.

“These buyers are cash-rich and don’t have to rely on financial mortgages. So, in a way, they’re not as sensitive to price,” he says.

For the rest of the country, 2025 has started on a more optimistic note.

Michelle Ciesielski, head of residential research at McGrath Estate Agents, described a “sigh of relief” across households after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark lending rate for the first time in over four years in February, lowering it to 4.10 percent. This followed a much-needed easing of inflation, which stood at 2.5 percent in January, down from 3.8 percent in mid-2023. “Inflation continues to moderate and is expected to return to the target range of two to three percent in 2025 and to reach the midpoint in 2026,” the RBA stated in February.

While confidence is improving in Sydney and Melbourne, a full recovery remains distant.

The pandemic caused major disruption in labour and material supply chains, derailing pre-Covid construction plans and exacerbating costs. Mortgage rates, which were around two percent before Covid-19, now stand at approximately six percent. Many property developers were forced to shelve projects indefinitely as building costs soared and loan repayments became unsustainable.

Despite these challenges, several major projects are in progress. Malaysian developer Setia is advancing Atlas Melbourne, a 73-storey mixed-use development featuring 839 residential units priced between AUD410,000 and AUD12.8 million. In North Sydney, local luxury developer Casa is preparing to launch The McLaren, a highend residential project with 71 units ranging from AUD890,000 to AUD4.45 million. These projects signal renewed optimism in the market, though it remains to be seen whether demand will match supply.

“Construction costs skyrocketed postCovid, but they are now starting to stabilise,” Lam says.

Developers have adapted by revising designs, costs, and timelines to accommodate market conditions.

“We’re just hoping that the overall economy will stabilise and that global economic factors—such as inflation and geopolitical tensions—will subside, bringing long-term investors back into the market,” Lam adds.

“With more projects being launched, the undersupply issue will gradually be resolved, but it’s going to take a few years at least.”

This article was originally published on asiarealestatesummit.com. Write to our editors at [email protected].