{"id":39568,"date":"2024-10-21T13:58:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-21T06:58:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/?p=39568"},"modified":"2024-11-13T14:32:34","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T07:32:34","slug":"chinas-property-market-shows-signs-of-life-as-new-government-stimulus-kicks-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/en\/chinas-property-market-shows-signs-of-life-as-new-government-stimulus-kicks-in\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s property market shows signs of life as new government stimulus kicks in"},"content":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s property slump has been gruelling for investors and developers alike. Yet state stimulus measures, designed to shock the market back to life, appear to be helping<\/p>\n

\"\"
In a less noticed move by the Chinese government, the State Council released its five-year urbanisation
plan, a blueprint for increasing the country\u2019s migration rate. aphotostory\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There were few signs of life when China\u2019s National Bureau of Statistics reported its latest housing market data in August. New home prices in the 70 largest cities in the country were down 4.9 percent on average compared to a year earlier, their lowest in nine years.<\/p>\n

This was the 13th month in a row that prices had fallen. However, there were also signs, however small, that an end to the ongoing housing crisis may finally be in sight. Although prices fell again in July, this was at the same rate as in June, indicating the runaway train demise of the Chinese housing market may be coming to a halt.<\/p>\n

A few green shoots have started to appear among the red numbers in the data and wrecked confidence that has typified recent doom and gloom around the Chinese market. Shanghai registered an uptick in prices of 0.2 percent in July versus the previous month, as did Xi\u2019an in central China.<\/p>\n

Prices in Taiyuan and Jilin in the north of the country remained unchanged. Of 70 of the country\u2019s cities, four had seen prices stabilise in July. Following months of house price declines, corporate defaults at the country\u2019s biggest developers, and talk of a housing crisis that seemingly never ends, these may be the first signs that the respite is in sight. Is there finally cause for cautious optimism, or is it yet another false dawn?<\/p>\n

\"\"
Shanghai registered an uptick in prices of 0.2 percent in July versus the previous month. Lushengyi\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Support from Beijing has helped create more positive conditions. In mid-May, the Chinese government unveiled drastic measures to halt the market slide. The People\u2019s Bank of China announced a rescue package whereby RMB300 billion (USD41.5 billion) would be mobilised to buy up unsold housing stock.<\/p>\n

Explaining the new policy, Vice Premier He Lifeng instructed city governments to convert excess inventory to affordable housing, which would both funnel much-needed income to the industry\u2019s struggling developers and offer cheaper housing to lower-income families.<\/p>\n

Not since a decade earlier, in 2014, had the Chinese government implemented such \u201cdrastic market stimulation measures\u201d, says James Woo, executive director and cohead of valuation and advisory services at Colliers China, in Beijing.<\/p>\n

Overall, the 2024 stimulus appears more expansive compared to 2014, potentially signalling the government\u2019s intent to provide greater support to the real estate market<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Additional measures designed to shock the market back to life, after years of curbs on runaway prices, have also been introduced, adds Woo. Downpayments on properties, reduced to between 20-30 percent for first and second homes in 2014, are currently lower at 15-25 percent, he says.<\/p>\n

Mortgage lower limits have also been reduced. In 2014, this rate minimum stood at 3.43 percent; in 2024, the bottom end has been removed entirely except for in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen at between just 3.05-3.15 percent.<\/p>\n

\u201cOverall, the 2024 stimulus appears more expansive compared to 2014, potentially signalling the government\u2019s intent to provide greater support to the real estate market,\u201d says Woo.<\/p>\n

In a less noticed move by the Chinese government, in late July, the State Council released its five-year urbanisation plan, a blueprint for increasing the country\u2019s migration rate from rural areas with the aim that 70 percent of the population would live in cities by the end of the decade.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Xi\u2019an in Central China is another major city that is seeing a slight upturn in real estate fortunes. gary yim\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Although designed principally to raise disposable incomes and encourage consumption, the plan will increase demand for housing in cities in the medium term, says David Zhang, an analyst at the China-focused consultancy Trivium.<\/p>\n

\u201cUrbanisation is a drawn-out process and won\u2019t reverse China\u2019s ongoing property slump anytime soon,\u201d comments Zhang. \u201cThe hope is that, in the long run, a constant stream of new urbanites can support the property sector\u2019s transition towards a stable and healthy growth model.\u201d<\/p>\n

Confidence in the housing market and the wider economy remains \u201cshaky\u201d, adds Zhang, and is a key factor as the government and private sector seek out solutions to turn the market around. Following years in which prices kept rising, and ordinary Chinese buyers believed the upward trend would never end, suddenly the largest asset most of the population will ever own has fallen in value and continued to do so for more than a year, an unprecedented situation for many.<\/p>\n

Continued distress among the largest developers in the country, the catalyst for the ongoing crisis, hasn\u2019t helped. In late August, developers Sunac and Vanke forecasted half-year losses of RMB15 billlion (USD2.1 billion), and RMB7 billion (USD980m), respectively. Combined half-year losses at 10 Hong Kong-listed developers, among China\u2019s largest including Sunac and Vanke, were expected to reach between RMB51.38billion and RMB57.88billion, about the same levels as a year earlier, according to Nikkei Asia.<\/p>\n

Amid the search for newfound market confidence, Chinese government officials and the Party press have attempted to push a positive narrative, particularly around the recent stimulus measures. In early July, the nationalist Global Times reported signs of a market \u201cuptick amid policy supports\u201d, and a week later a similar opinion piece was printed in the same newspaper.<\/p>\n

\"\"
The northern city of Taiyuan is another hub that is witnessing a stabilisation in property prices. w583254846\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Analysts meanwhile have remained more cautious as the wait for the end of China\u2019s housing market slump continues. Following the release of the latest housing price data in mid-August, analysts at the Dutch investment bank ING say the market \u201cwill continue to need more policy support to establish bottom\u201d in a research note to investors.<\/p>\n

\u201cData has shown that there is still a lack of confidence and demand in the property sector,\u201d says Woo of Colliers. \u201cA recovery sign is difficult to see in the short term.\u201d<\/p>\n

The best outcome in the near term remains market stabilisation, in terms of house prices and sales volumes that can help the industry undergo \u201cconsolidation and rebalancing\u201d, according to James Macdonald, head of Savills Research China, in Shanghai.<\/p>\n

Although the measures introduced by Beijing in May prompted an initial boost in sales the same month and in June, \u201cmomentum appears to be waning\u201d before in turn \u201csuggesting that the impact may be limited or temporary\u201d, he says.<\/p>\n

A key part of the problems facing the Chinese market remains wider issues around the overall economy and sluggish growth. Although the Chinese government has set an economic growth target of five percent for this year, many analysts have remained cautious it can still be achieved, despite reaching 5.2 percent last year. In the second quarter, official data showed a rate of just 4.7 percent.<\/p>\n

\u201cExpectations for a significant rebound remain cautious,\u201d says Macdonald of Savills. \u201cBeyond targeted property market policies, a broader recovery will require improvements in the overall economic outlook, including factors such as job growth and wage increases, before we can anticipate a more robust recovery in the property sector.\u201d<\/p>\n

T<\/em>his article was originally published on\u00a0asiarealestatesummit.com<\/a>. Write to our editors at\u00a0propertyreport@propertyguru.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The country\u2019s property slump has been gruelling, but stimulus measures appear to be breathing life into the market<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":39569,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[97,92],"tags":[137,394,638],"class_list":["post-39568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-magazine","category-news","tag-china","tag-news","tag-real-estate","news_country-china","news_author-steve-finch"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s property market shows signs of life as new government stimulus kicks in | Asia Property Awards<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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