{"id":37933,"date":"2024-05-20T15:47:52","date_gmt":"2024-05-20T08:47:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/?p=37933"},"modified":"2024-06-20T16:49:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-20T09:49:06","slug":"thai-real-estate-faces-turbulence-amid-rising-costs-and-economic-challenges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/en\/thai-real-estate-faces-turbulence-amid-rising-costs-and-economic-challenges\/","title":{"rendered":"Thai real estate faces turbulence amid rising costs and economic challenges"},"content":{"rendered":"

Things may look rosy at the highest echelons of Thailand\u2019s real estate market, but high interest rates and rising inflation are hitting developers and end users alike<\/p>\n

\"\"
Home building costs rose throughout 2022, hitting their highest growth in 19 quarters in the last quarter. MartinhoSmart\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

On Rama 4 Road in Bangkok, on the fringes of Lumpini Park\u2014the main green lung in the city\u2014 Thailand\u2019s biggest construction project, One Bangkok, is taking shape.<\/p>\n

Once completed, it will be a towering collection of apartments, office blocks, luxury hotels, and shops. Bets on Thailand\u2019s property market don\u2019t come bigger. Indeed, it is undoubtedly the most extravagant undertaking yet seen in the Kingdom.<\/p>\n

But One Bangkok is something of a bullish outlier. Beyond the smoke and mirrors, Bangkok\u2019s residential sector is enduring a rough ride.<\/p>\n

This year, only 40,000 new condominium units are expected to be launched in the city\u2019s midtown and suburban areas, according to the latest data from CBRE.<\/p>\n

Excepting pandemic-ravaged 2020 and 2021, when launches in downtown and suburban areas were at their lowest since 2012, this year is shaping to be among the slowest in over a decade.<\/p>\n

The downtown sector will experience some marginal improvement this year\u2014with 4,500 new launches compared to 3,153 last year\u2014but remains well down on pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n

The chief culprits are rising interest rates and a sputtering economy. Things have become so concerning that Thailand\u2019s prime minister Srettha Thavisin declared in February that the economy was at a \u201ccritical stage\u201d.<\/p>\n

He has been at loggerheads with the central bank to cut the interest rate, which the central bank kept in February at 2.50 percent, the highest in more than a decade.<\/p>\n

Despite his repeated warnings of the toll high household debt and China\u2019s slowdown are taking on the Thai economy, the bank remains resolute: Unless structural problems in the economy are solved, it won\u2019t cut rates.<\/p>\n

\u201c2024 started with a cautious outlook for the first half, with the prospect of a more active market in the second half of the year,\u201d says Roongrat Veeraparkkaroon, managing director of CBRE Thailand.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Showpiece projects like One Bangkok are masking an overall gloomy economic outlook for Thailand<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cHigher interest rates and concerns over inflation saw end-of-2023 GDP numbers fall well short of expectations. As a result, we expect early 2024 to be relatively muted in terms of activity.\u201d<\/p>\n

For the housing market, the consequences have been tough.<\/p>\n

Home building costs rose throughout 2022, hitting their highest growth in 19 quarters in the last quarter at 6.2 percent. For this year, house prices are predicted to rise by between five and 10 percent, particularly for new projects.<\/p>\n

Leong Choong Peng, an advisor to Mentabuild, a construction consultancy, says developers usually bear the brunt in tough times.<\/p>\n

Higher interest rates and concerns over inflation saw end-of-2023 GDP numbers fall well short of expectations. We expect the early part of 2024 to be relatively muted in terms of activity<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cHigher interest rates generally affect the developers due to the increase in project financing costs, more than the contractors or builders as they are primarily concerned with rising fuel and material manufacturing costs,\u201d he states. \u201cThe material to labour cost ratio in Thailand is roughly 70 to 30. Therefore, the increase in material cost has more effect on overall construction cost.\u201d<\/p>\n

For younger buyers, it\u2019s meant their ideal home has become suddenly unattainable amid mounting household debt and rising inflation that has made banks cautious to approve loans.<\/p>\n

\u201cI want to buy a home, but it feels like I can only afford a townhouse with my budget,\u201d Kamonchanok, an office worker, tells The Nation newspaper. \u201cThe dream of having my ideal home seems challenging given the current state of the housing market in Thailand.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"
Analysts predict fewer low-rise launches in 2024 because of stricter lending policies for projects and mortgages. TravelMania\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Analysts predict fewer low-rise launches in 2024 because of stricter lending policies for projects and mortgages.<\/p>\n

Instead, developers will shift their attention to the more buoyant luxury market.<\/p>\n

Nichakamol Horungruang, senior manager for research and consulting at JLL, anticipates the completion of approximately 2,800 new luxury units across 10 projects, and the unsold rate to remain below 5% throughout the year.<\/p>\n

\u201cLuxury condos are often purchased by wealthy individuals and foreigners,\u201d he says. \u201cAdditionally, most Thai buyers in the luxury market are end users who are primarily seeking to reside in the units rather than purchasing for investment purposes.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe upcoming new projects will be positioned at the topend tier of the market, with an average selling price of approximately THB300,000 per square metre (USD8,765) or higher.\u201d<\/p>\n

Among the more ambitious projects on the cards are the Nirvana Collection Krungthep Kreetha, a super-luxury block of single houses priced between THB80 million to THB150 million.<\/p>\n

In the neighbourhood of Ari, Vi Ari has launched near the BTS Skytrain station. The complex is made up of just six houses with prices starting at THB82 million.<\/p>\n

Outside Bangkok, Phuket is also enjoying a bump in new luxury developments. Hip hotel name Standard International is collaborating with Thai developer Sansiri on new branded residences in Phuket and Hua Hin, which is already home to a Standard hotel. Prices for the units range from THB8.99 million to THB100 million with move-ins for Hua Hin starting in Q2 2026 and Phuket possibly in late 2027.<\/p>\n

\"\"
New Thai Premier Srettha Thavasin is prioritising real estate as a potential driver for the economy. SPhotograph\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yet the economy can\u2019t rely on a robust luxury market alone.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Srettha, who is a former property tycoon (he co-founded Sansiri), says housing is an \u201cimportant issue that needs immediate fixing\u201d for its potential to have a knock-on effect on other businesses.<\/p>\n

Among the measures he has proposed are reducing property transfer and mortgage fees; granting soft loans to low-income earners for their first house purchase; reducing land and building tax by 50 percent for a year; and reboosting the full loan-to-value ratio (LTV) to stimulate the buyer market.<\/p>\n

Nichakamol of JLL says these combined should give more buyers, from a wider demographic, money to play with and more affordable housing options.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe announced policies are expected to be effective and have a positive impact on the overall market, including the luxury segment,\u201d he says. \u201cHowever, we will monitor their implementation and effectiveness in the coming months.\u201d<\/p>\n

T<\/em>his article was originally published on\u00a0asiarealestatesummit.com<\/a>. Write to our editors at\u00a0propertyreport@propertyguru.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

High interest rates and rising inflation are hitting developers and end users in the Kingdom<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":37934,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[97,92],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-magazine","category-news","news_country-thailand","news_author-george-styllis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThai real estate faces turbulence amid rising costs and economic challenges | Asia Property Awards<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/en\/thai-real-estate-faces-turbulence-amid-rising-costs-and-economic-challenges\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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