{"id":37842,"date":"2024-05-08T15:20:38","date_gmt":"2024-05-08T08:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/?p=37842"},"modified":"2024-05-21T16:35:05","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T09:35:05","slug":"overhauling-chinas-hukou-system-property-and-economic-transformations-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/en\/overhauling-chinas-hukou-system-property-and-economic-transformations-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Overhauling China’s hukou system: Property and economic transformations ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s hukou<\/em> household registration system has existed since the Mao era. Yet reforms may accelerate internal migration with significant impacts on property and the economy<\/p>\n

\"\"
Reform of the hukou<\/em> household registration system is likely to boost internal migration in China. humphery\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Reading the tea leaves on reforms to China\u2019s pervasive hukou<\/em>, or household registration system, has become a science in recent years. And it\u2019s an imperfect one at best.<\/p>\n

In May 2017, the respected East Asia Forum reported that China was \u201cgoing nowhere on hukou<\/em> reform\u201d. Yet by October of 2020, China\u2019s state-run English-language broadcaster CGTN reported the system had in part been \u201cabolished\u201d.<\/p>\n

News articles predicting the demise of the hukou<\/em> system have become routine. And so have been those announcing the opposite.<\/p>\n

Reforms of this complex system have moved at a glacial pace. However, recent indicators point to this process speeding up in economically significant areas of the country.<\/p>\n

Reforms impact migration patterns, with knock-on effects for real estate and the economy since the hukou<\/em> system determines where China\u2019s 1.4 billion people receive health insurance, send their children to school, and buy a house.<\/p>\n

This is especially true amid enduring recent challenges, including the liquidation of property giant Evergrande Group in January following 5.2 percent GDP growth last year, China\u2019s worst economic performance outside of pandemic lockdowns in over three decades.<\/p>\n

In August last year, the powerful Ministry of Public Security, which oversees the bulk of China\u2019s police force, announced orders to local governments to cancel hukou<\/em> restrictions in cities with fewer than three million people, and to relax controls in those with between three to five million people.<\/p>\n

That means China\u2019s 23 largest cities, including Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan, would not be impacted. That\u2019s no small thing, given these cities account for about 220 million people. But that still leaves about 85 percent of the country\u2019s population in smaller cities and rural areas.<\/p>\n

Around the time of the announcement, two of China\u2019s three richest provinces issued plans to scrap hukou<\/em> restrictions entirely outside of their largest cities. Zhejiang\u2019s regional government said it would do so in all areas apart from Hangzhou, meaning the large port city of Ningbo and its population of nearly four million people would allow migrants free rein in terms of registration.<\/p>\n

In Jiangsu, only the major cities of Nanjing and Suzhou would be exempt, according to similar plans. Both cities have become among the largest migrant worker hubs in the country for tech, pharmaceuticals, electric vehicles, and other industries, ranking among the richest per capita in China, according to official data.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina\u2019s 300 million migrant workers tend to spend less than their urban counterparts due to the need to save for retirement, healthcare, and school expenses for children,\u201d says David Zhang, a macroeconomic policy and property sector analyst at Trivium China, a policy intelligence advisory based in Beijing.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Hukou restrictions are set to be scrapped in a number of cities including in the port of Ningbo in Zhejiang. lightrain\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cGranting them urban hukous<\/em> could unlock trillions of yuan in savings, delivering a substantial boost to domestic consumption just as authorities are increasingly looking inward for growth impetus.\u201d<\/p>\n

Amid recent economic woes, the chorus of support for hukou<\/em> reform appears to be getting louder. In September, former central bank governor Yi Gang wrote a policy advisory calling for an end to household registration red tape.<\/p>\n

In December, two anonymous hukou<\/em> government policy advisors told Reuters that although hurdles to reforms remain, including internal government disagreement, smaller cities across the country were keen to scrap household registration restrictions in part to clear excess housing inventory.<\/p>\n

\u201cMore substantive hukou<\/em> reform will be key to bolstering demand for millions of unoccupied urban apartments,\u201d says Zhang of Trivium China.<\/p>\n

The debate over China\u2019s hukou<\/em> has come amid a housing crisis in China following the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the long term, China is facing a shift away from the significant property appetite witnessed before the recent slump, when wealthy and ordinary Chinese alike viewed the sector as a surefire investment and key to generational wealth.<\/p>\n

In February, the International Monetary Fund warned China was facing a structural recalibration in which real estate investment was expected to fall between 30 and 60 percent in the medium term, with only a partial rebound thereafter.<\/p>\n

\u201cSales have fallen amid homebuyer concerns that developers lack sufficient financing to complete projects and that prices will decline in the future,\u201d says the IMF, which described China\u2019s housing downturn as among the worst anywhere in the world over the past three decades.<\/p>\n

Reforming the hukou<\/em> system is undoubtedly crucial for cities to attract talent, boost permanent populations, and stimulate housing demand<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Now into its fourth year, the slump has shown few signs of improving thus far in 2024 as the central and regional governments have implemented a raft of policy-easing measures, including household registration. In January, average house prices in the country\u2019s 70 largest cities fell for the eighth month straight.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s property market problems have become \u201cself-fulfilling\u201d, with buyers convinced they must wait and see amid concerns of indebted developers, in turn furthering the deterioration in business at these same companies, according to a research note by Macquarie Group in January.<\/p>\n

The same month, another of the country\u2019s largest developers, Country Garden, announced contracted sales halved last year and were down 70 percent to CNY6.91 billion (USD972.8 million) in December, suggesting its financial problems were accelerating following a debt default in October. Country Garden is among 50 Chinese developers to have defaulted since the housing crisis began in 2021.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s residential outlook remains \u201cchallenging\u201d and is likely to require several years, including developer consolidation, as companies continue to fail before stabilisation becomes possible, says James MacDonald, head of Savills Research China, in a bleak near-term outlook.<\/p>\n

\u201cReforming the hukou<\/em> system is undoubtedly crucial for cities to attract talent, boost permanent populations, and stimulate housing demand. However, the most urgent challenge lies in restoring confidence in the short-term economic outlook and job prospects,\u201d says MacDonald. \u201cWithout this confidence, many households may hesitate to make the substantial financial commitment of purchasing property in the near future.\u201d<\/p>\n

T<\/em>his article was originally published on\u00a0asiarealestatesummit.com<\/a>. Write to our editors at\u00a0propertyreport@propertyguru.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reforms to China\u2019s household registration system may accelerate internal migration with significant impacts on real estate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":37843,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[92,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-property-report","news_country-china","news_author-steve-finch"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOverhauling China's hukou system: Property and economic transformations ahead | Asia Property Awards<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/en\/overhauling-chinas-hukou-system-property-and-economic-transformations-ahead\/\" 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