{"id":25542,"date":"2021-10-21T11:08:10","date_gmt":"2021-10-21T04:08:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/?p=25542"},"modified":"2021-11-19T14:25:29","modified_gmt":"2021-11-19T07:25:29","slug":"beijings-call-for-common-prosperity-cools-down-property-prices-in-major-cities-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.asiapropertyawards.com\/en\/beijings-call-for-common-prosperity-cools-down-property-prices-in-major-cities-emerging-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Beijing\u2019s call for \u201ccommon prosperity\u201d cools down property prices in major cities, emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

The squeeze on property prices affected not just China\u2019s tier-one cities, but also investors looking for earners in emerging markets<\/p>\n

\"\"
Lili.Q\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Few residential markets anywhere in the world have experienced a recent rollercoaster quite like Shenzhen.<\/p>\n

After home prices in this southern city facing Hong Kong recorded annual price growth of 14 percent in 2020\u2014despite the worst start of a year on record due to the pandemic\u2014the central government fired Shenzhen\u2019s mayor Chen Rugui and other top officials.<\/p>\n

Successor Qin Weizhong was named at the end of April and charged with curbing runaway house prices with strict orders from Beijing.<\/p>\n

The impact of the new mayor has been nothing short of miraculous. After failing to sell at auction on August 4, one home in a high-end high school district of Shenzhen\u2014what the Chinese eagerly refer to as being in a sought-after xuequfang\u2014eventually sold more than two weeks later for about CNY100,000 ($15,400) per square metre, according to reports in state-run newspapers in Shenzhen.<\/p>\n

That price tag comes in at considerably more than the average price in Tokyo, and only a touch below what buyers would expect to pay in Manhattan. But by Shenzhen standards, it was a bargain: coming in at a staggering 40 percent below what homebuyers were paying in the same sought-after downtown district just three months prior.<\/p>\n

Up to June, the average price of a second-hand home in Shenzhen fell 15 percent this year, while previously runaway prices of new homes were scaled back to just 3.5 percent growth versus a year earlier, according to official government statistics.<\/p>\n

Shenzhen was turned from a fishing village into a model special economic zone under Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping\u2019s reforms in the 1980s. And now the city is once again being used as a model for how to fight rising home prices seen as inequitable by China\u2019s rulers.<\/p>\n

During the first half of this year alone, Shenzhen\u2019s municipal authorities\u2014closely watched by the central government\u2014enacted more than 300 rounds of cooling measures aimed at reining in home prices, according to Hong Kong\u2019s South China Morning Post which closely tracks house prices across its mainland frontier with Shenzhen.<\/p>\n

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Yinchuan in Western Ningxia is one of the best performing investment destinations in China with home price growth of up to 11 percent in recent months. FlavioAlmeida\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Among them, further restrictions on purchase eligibility have been enacted as well as China\u2019s first pricing reference scheme which sets guideline prices below actual transaction prices, in effect capping price growth and speculation, while increasing the land available for development which has eased the rush for land and property in the city.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe irrational mania that appeared in Shenzhen\u2019s first-hand residential property market in the past few quarters was gradually diminished and replaced by a more prudent and rational sentiment,\u201d Carlby Xie, research director for Southern China at Savills, said in July.<\/p>\n

This dramatic shift from post-lockdown resurgence to subdued sales has been replicated across China\u2019s largest cities, engines of the country\u2019s residential market.<\/p>\n

In July, the growth rate of new and second-hand home prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou collectively climbed just 0.4 percent, nearly half the rate recorded a month prior, according to central government statistics.<\/p>\n

Beijing saw the strongest gains with just 0.8 percent price growth on new homes in the Chinese capital. But that\u2019s a far cry from China\u2019s boom years and the gains previously witnessed in the capital.<\/p>\n

n recent months, China\u2019s top central government officials have increasingly echoed a now commonly heard refrain from the Xi Jinping: \u201cHousing is for living, not for speculation\u201d.<\/p>\n

Vice Premier Han Zheng became the latest top Chinese politician to repeat the mantra after a meeting with Xi at the end of July in which the central government said it would aim to clean up illicit funds and other \u201cillegal\u201d activities related to the property sector over the next three years.<\/p>\n

New measures designed to tackle house prices, announced simultaneously by the central government, included greater scrutiny of capital inflows and higher mortgage rates.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese measures do not target any cities in particular,\u201d says Jesse Wang, member of the judging panel at PropertyGuru Asia Property Awards (Mainland China) and director of FG Studio in Shanghai which designs housing sales centres across China for developers including Greenland Group, Landsea Group and China Resources Holdings. \u201cI think the purpose is designed to curb what has been a strong rebound since the Covid-19 lockdowns.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"
The Chinese government\u2019s focus on \u2018common prosperity\u2019 has brought about a rebalancing in the property market as authorities try to curb runaway price rises. paha1205\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There is every sign that residential market restrictions in China are here to stay and will likely expand. When Xi and the central government spoke of its new overarching policy focus on \u2018common prosperity\u2019 in July, the property sector and soaring house prices were named among the worst offenders.<\/p>\n

China watchers say that Xi has roughly quadrupled the rate at which he has used the term \u201ccommon prosperity\u201d so far this year, a sure sign among Sinophiles that policy change is in the air\u2014and here to stay for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe government\u2019s resolve to balance housing prices is believed to aid the \u2018common prosperity\u2019 effort,\u201d Wen Sheng, an editor of the nationalistic Global Times newspaper wrote in an editorial on the new policy in late August. He cited the education sector as the other key industry deemed to be eroding family wealth in China.<\/p>\n

The opportunity to make gains seen in past years haS diminished as the entry prices have continued to rise and restrictions remain tight. At the same time, the country continues to shift to more sustainable economic policies<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While previous efforts to rein in soaring house prices in China have focused on the largest cities known as tier-one in China, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, there are signs Beijing is extending its increasingly strict oversight further into the provinces.<\/p>\n

In July, housing officials held talks to discuss runaway prices with counterparts in the small cities of Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Jinhua, Quanzhou and Huizhou\u2014all among the best performers this year in terms of price growth.<\/p>\n

The previous month, new home prices in Yinchuan grew more than 11 percent in a year, making this little-known city of 2.3 million people in Western Ningxia province the second-best performer among China\u2019s cities, according to the official central government statistics.<\/p>\n

Only Guangzhou recorded higher rises in new home prices over the same period, but its growth slowed to just 0.2 percent in July as city officials tried desperately to rein in the market.<\/p>\n

Asked where the next price growth hotspots might be seen in China, Savills\u2019s director of research James MacDonald suggested new opportunities in the residential and retail market disappear as quickly as they appear amid increasingly strict oversight.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe opportunity to make gains seen in past years has diminished as the entry prices have continued to rise and restrictions remain tight,\u201d says MacDonald. \u201cAt the same time, the country continues to shift to more sustainable economic policies.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"
Qionglai in Sichuan province is among China\u2019s emerging cities tipped for strong growth . B.Zhou\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Capital markets have reacted with caution to the new regulatory winds blowing from Beijing. At the end of June, Chinese property stocks slumped to ten-year lows with developer Vanke reaching a 30-month low of CNY24.08 in Shenzhen, and Poly Developments and Holdings closing to CNY12.13 in Shanghai, its lowest price in two years.<\/p>\n

Investment banks and rating agencies including Morgan Stanley have in recent weeks downgraded their view on China\u2019s property sector and its leading companies amid stricter government policy.<\/p>\n

More: 6 places to see in Bangkok weekenders\u2019 go-to beach town Hua Hin<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cContinuous de-leveraging may affect developers\u2019 land acquisition capacity and growth outlook, leading to marginal downside risks to property management companies\u2019 contract gross floor area growth,\u201d Morgan Stanley analysts including Chloe Liu wrote in a note at the end of August.<\/p>\n

The million-dollar question now for China\u2019s reeling residential market: Where will be the new centres of growth and what will these look like?<\/p>\n

With even lower-tier cities facing central government scrutiny, developers and investors will look to the ever further outer edges of China\u2019s biggest cities, says Luo Minjie, an industry expert consultant at PropertyGuru Asia Property Awards (Mainland China) and a director of Waterfront Urban and Rural Development, a housing subsidiary of state-owned Sichuan Port and Shipping Investment Group.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Shanghai\u2019s booming rental market has been a beneficiary of China\u2019s new regulatory environment. ABCDstock\/Shutterstock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Although much has been made of China\u2019s rapid migration to its expanding cities, Luo says that urbanisation has still only reached 60 percent and is expected to climb much higher over the next 15 years or so as China further catches the 80 percent urbanisation rates recorded in some developed countries.<\/p>\n

\u201cA 20 percent potential raise indicates that nearly 300 million farmers will become urban residents,\u201d says Luo. \u201cUrbanisation in China still has huge potential.\u201d<\/p>\n

Citing the example of his native Sichuan province, one of the most densely populated corners of the globe, Luo speaks of small cities including Qionglai, Chongzhou and Jianyang\u2014all satellites of the provincial capital Chengdu\u2014as possible new centres of residential growth and opportunity for homeowners and developers.<\/p>\n

He said his own company Waterfront Urban and Rural Development is focusing more on cultural tourism projects, holiday and leisure accommodation, and rural revitalisation development in response to the government\u2019s stricter oversight of the residential market.<\/p>\n

The rental market, long maligned in a country where house ownership is considered important in the context of marriage, family and wealth, is viewed by many market observers as a beneficiary of the new regulatory environment in China. The rental market in Shanghai, which has witnessed the steepest house prices in China and among the highest anywhere, has bucked the trend in recent months, according to Savills.<\/p>\n

More: Green momentum grows in Asia, propelled by disruptors and innovators<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The government has recently allowed developers to convert existing developments to residential lease usage and permitted rentals in future Real Estate Investment Trusts or REITS which, in turn, has fueled the rental market in China\u2019s largest\u2014and still costliest\u2014city.<\/p>\n

\u201cHurdles remain given the low yields and a lack of investment-grade stock,\u201d cautions MacDonald of Savills, but added: \u201cInstitutional investors are increasingly exploring opportunities in the leasing market as domestic demand for rental properties continues to grow in leading cities.\u201d<\/p>\n

With the range of investment opportunities further narrowing in mainland China, private investors look all but certain to seek out house-buying opportunities outside of the mainland. The central government has in the past clamped down on cross-border capital flows to rein in speculation overseas. But there have been no such new measures amid the round of recent domestic price and buying curbs, said Georg Chmiel, group executive chairman of China\u2019s largest overseas online house-buying portal Juwai IQI.<\/p>\n

In July, inquiries on Juwai.com increased by double digits across at least ten of the most popular overseas markets among Chinese house buyers such as Australia, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. \u201cSome of this growth will be due to buyers squeezed out of their local market,\u201d says Chmiel. \u201cThe clampdown on investors in China\u2019s tier-one cities has been a driver of demand for overseas investment since it began.\u201d<\/p>\n

The original version of this article appeared in\u00a0Issue No. 168<\/a>\u00a0of\u00a0PropertyGuru Property Report Magazine<\/a>.
\nWrite to our editors at\u00a0propertyreport@propertyguru.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The squeeze on property prices affected not just China\u2019s tier-one cities, but also investors looking for earners in emerging markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":25543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[97,92],"tags":[137,520,638,512],"class_list":["post-25542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-magazine","category-news","tag-china","tag-home-prices","tag-real-estate","tag-residential","news_country-china","news_author-steve-finch"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBeijing\u2019s call for \u201ccommon prosperity\u201d cools down property prices in major cities, emerging markets | Asia Property Awards<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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